Arming Serbia in a region with a history of conflicts such as the Balkans increases the risk of tensions and mistrust

Arming Serbia in a region with a history of conflicts such as the Balkans increases the risk of tensions and mistrust, especially if it is accompanied by nationalist rhetoric

By Isuf B. Bajrami

Regional Security and Serbia's Behavior

The Western Balkans region is a strategically sensitive area, where historical, political, and economic factors influence the security and stability of states. Following the dissolution of former Yugoslavia in the 1990s, ethnic tensions, territorial disputes, and historical grievances have created a continuous climate of uncertainty. Past conflicts, including the wars in Bosnia, the Kosovo crisis, and tensions in North Macedonia, have left deep marks on relations between neighbors. In this environment, any military movement or modernization of armed forces has an immediate effect on regional security perceptions.

Serbia, considering itself the heir to the military power of former Yugoslavia, has pursued an ambitious military modernization policy. Investments in modern equipment, next-generation fighter jets, supersonic missiles, and advanced defensive systems clearly demonstrate an effort to build a technologically competitive military in the region. The diversification of weapons suppliers—from China, Russia, and France—provides Serbia with strategic flexibility, but also creates a cautious perception among neighbors, who often view this as a potentially aggressive policy.

At the same time, Serbia's formal military neutrality and its limited cooperation with NATO through the Partnership for Peace program do not completely alleviate neighbors' concerns. The advanced modernization of air capabilities and standoff potential, including the use of CM?400AKG supersonic missiles, armed CH?92A and CH?95 drones, and FK?3 and HQ?17AE air defense systems, increases Serbia's capacity for operations that could affect neighboring territories, particularly in Kosovo, Bosnia, and Montenegro. This combination of technological capabilities with a high defense budget (around 2.5–2.6% of GDP) enhances the potential for political and military pressure on other regional states.

From the perspective of neighbors and the international community, these developments are seen not only as necessary modernization but also as a possible signal of aggression or regional dominance. Croatia and Albania have expressed concerns over the growing standoff capabilities and use of armed drones, considering these factors as potentially destabilizing for the balance of power. Additionally, Serbia's strategic investments in advanced military technology may influence the need for neighboring states to increase defense spending, modernize their forces, and coordinate regional security.

In this context, Serbia's actions can be interpreted as part of a broader strategy that combines military power with selective diplomacy and alliances outside NATO and the European Union. The use of advanced technological capabilities to safeguard national sovereignty, while demonstrating offensive potential, creates a unique regional dynamic where neighbors and international actors must contend with a new balance of power.

Security analysis indicates that Serbia's military modernization is not merely a technical challenge but has a strategic dimension that impacts relations between neighbors, regional stability, and conflict prevention mechanisms. Every move, contract, and modernization of standoff capabilities directly affects security perceptions and underscores the need for dialogue, monitoring, and regional trust-building mechanisms.

Military Modernization of Serbia: Capabilities, Strategies, and Regional Implications

1. FRAMEWORK OF SERBIA'S MILITARY MODERNIZATION

Serbia follows an ambitious strategy to modernize its armed forces by:

• Diversifying suppliers of military equipment (China¹, France², traditional Russia³, and domestic production?)

• Increasing capabilities for modern warfare, including air defense, offensive capabilities, and next-generation fighter jets?

• A high strategic defense budget, around 2.5–2.6% of GDP?, one of the highest in the Western Balkans

This comes while maintaining "military neutrality"? (Serbia is not a NATO member), but it cooperates with NATO through the Partnership for Peace program?.

2. AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS

1. FK?3 (export of HQ?22) – Air Defense from China

• Type: Medium-range air defense missile system

• Capabilities: Protects against aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles, and drones up to approximately 100 km?,¹?,¹¹

It is a modern, radar-guided, mobile system delivered to Serbian forces initially in 2022 following an earlier agreement. This is the first purchase of this system by a European country.

2. HQ?17AE – Short/Mid-Range Air Defense

• The HQ?17AE system is intended to defend against low and medium-altitude aerial threats (e.g., small planes, helicopters, drones)¹³,¹?,¹?

3. STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE WEAPONS

1. CM?400AKG – Supersonic Air-to-Surface Missile

• Origin: China (CASIC)¹?

• Role: Air-to-surface strike missile with standoff strike capability, enhancing fighter jets¹?,²?

• Range: up to ~400 km¹?

• Speed: up to approximately Mach 3.5?4 and potentially hypersonic according to some analyses¹?

• Warhead weight: 150–200 kg, capable of missions against ground or naval targets¹?

Serbia is the first country in Europe to deploy these missiles on its MiG?29 jets²?; this increases its long-range offensive capability, not just defensive.

4. DRONES AND NEW CAPABILITIES

1. CH?92A and CH?95 – Drones from China

• CH?92A: Armed tactical drones for reconnaissance and laser-guided missile strikes²²

• CH?95: A more advanced version offering improved reconnaissance and strike capabilities²³

• Imports: Serbia is the first European operator of these systems²?

These autonomous drones give the Serbian army modern capabilities for surveillance and precision strikes without risking pilots²?.

5. FIGHTER AIRCRAFT – TRADITIONAL AND MODERN

1. MiG?29 – Current Main Fleet

• Soviet-era Russian aircraft that Serbia has acquired and continues to operate³

• The integration of CM?400AKG missiles extends the offensive power of these aircraft²?

2. Dassault Rafale – Newly Acquired Jets

• Contract: Serbia signed an agreement with France to purchase 12 Rafale jets with accompanying equipment²

• Value: approximately €2.7–3 billion²

• Importance: This is a cutting-edge aircraft with powerful aerial capabilities and modern avionics, unlike the Soviet-era MiG?29²?

This represents a major transformation in air power, bringing "Western" technology into the Serbian army and distributing military supply between East and West.

6. SUPPLY STRATEGY – SOURCES OF WEAPONS

Serbia purchases weapons from multiple strategic sources:

1. China – FK?3, CM?400AKG, CH?92A, CH?95 (main part of modern equipment imports 2020–2024)¹,¹?,²²

2. Russia – MiG?29 jets and other traditional systems³,?

3. France (West) – Rafale and other modern equipment²

According to SIPRI data, Serbia imported more from China (57%) than from Russia (20%) or France (~7.4%) between 2020–2025³?,³¹,³²,³³.

7. REGIONAL DYNAMICS AND PERCEPTIONS

1. Risk of an Arms Race

• Serbia has higher military spending than many neighbors, seeking advanced technology which may be seen as a power balance in the region but also a source of tension³?

• Some NATO countries in the region (e.g., Albania, Croatia) are modernizing forces according to NATO standards¹²

• Serbia uses a mix of Eastern and Western investments, potentially causing concerns about military balances³?

2. Neighbor Reactions

• Neighbors like Croatia have called the purchase of Chinese missiles an action that alters the military balance and may increase regional tensions³?

Assessment for regional stability:

• Armament and modernization are legitimate for a state seeking to secure sovereignty³?

• However, countries in the region with histories of conflict (e.g., Kosovo, Bosnia, North Macedonia) view these developments cautiously, focusing on balance of power and distrust³?

• The use of modern technologies (long-range missiles, drones) changes the nature of traditional arsenals, requiring new mechanisms for dialogue and regional stability³?

8. POSSIBLE USE SCENARIOS OF MILITARY CAPABILITIES

8.1 Use of CM?400AKG Supersonic Missiles

• Mission: Strike distant strategic targets, such as military bases, logistical infrastructure, ammunition depots, and communication terminals¹?,²?

• Operational strategy: The missile can be launched from long distance, minimizing risk to MiG?29²? or Rafale²? aircraft

• Tactical capabilities: Supersonic speed and high precision to penetrate conventional air defenses¹?,¹?

8.2 Role of Air Defense Systems

• Defense: FK?3¹? and HQ?17AE¹³ protect airspace from aircraft, cruise missiles, and drones²²

• Support: Provides coverage for aircraft conducting offensive strikes

• Counter-threat: Reduces the adversary's capability for air intervention

8.3 Integration of Drones

• Detection: Monitoring strategic areas²²,²³

• Strike: Laser-guided missiles hit critical objectives²²,²³

• Coordination: Operate in parallel with supersonic missiles and aircraft²?,²?

• Tactical-operational advantage: Reduces risk for pilots and ground forces²?

8.4 Use of Fighter Aircraft

• MiG?29: Air defense and standoff strike missions²?

• Rafale: Complex air-to-air and air-to-ground missions, modern avionics, and wide standoff capability²?,²?

8.5 System Synergy

• Coordinated offense and defense

• Reduced risk for advanced forces

• Strategic effect: Political and tactical pressure on neighbors³?,³?,³?

9. STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS FOR NATO AND NEIGHBORS

9.1 Impact on NATO

• Mixing Eastern and Western equipment provides unique flexibility¹?,²,³

• Supersonic missiles and advanced aircraft challenge NATO tactical-strategic planning³?

• Possible cooperation: training and monitoring?

9.2 Impact on Balkan Neighbors

• Croatia and Albania: Significant technological gap³?,²?

• Montenegro, Bosnia, and North Macedonia: Need for strategic reassessment³?

• Diplomatic effect: Demonstrating capabilities as a pressure tool³?

9.3 Balance of Power

• Standoff capability advantage²?

• Use of tactical drones²²,²³ increases tactical capacity

• Challenge for neighbors: additional investments and dialogue mechanisms³?

9.4 Conflict Prevention

• Regional dialogue and transparency on exercises??

• Demonstration of capabilities as warning³?

• International role to reduce threat perceptions??

9.5 Strategic Conclusion

• Technological capabilities that enhance regional influence³?,³?

• Combination of defensive and offensive skills

• Instrument of political and tactical-strategic pressure³?

10. ADAPTING MILITARY DOCTRINE AND RECOMMENDATIONS

10.1 Operational Doctrine Adaptation

• Integrated air-ground doctrine?

• Layered defense

• Flexibility and standoff strike capability²?

10.2 Security Policy Recommendations

1. Increase regional cooperation?³

2. Invest in training and operational doctrine?³

3. Balance investments in defense and diplomacy?³

4. Develop conflict prevention mechanisms?³

10.3 Analysis Conclusion

• Flexible and technologically advanced military²?

• Political and tactical pressure capacity³?

• Balance between defense and offensive capabilities

• Combined technical, budgetary, and diplomatic strategy??

Summary

The military modernization of Serbia represents a significant strategic shift in the Western Balkans, positioning the country as a military actor with advanced capabilities that surpass many of its neighbors. Through the integration of CM?400AKG supersonic missiles, advanced CH?92A and CH?95 drones, state-of-the-art Rafale fighter jets, and modern air defense systems such as FK?3 and HQ?17AE, Serbia has created a unique combination of offensive and defensive capabilities that go beyond traditional regional security standards. Its high defense budget and diversified procurement from China, Russia, and France reflect strategic flexibility influenced by the need to balance Eastern and Western interests.

One of the most critical elements of this modernization is Russia's role. By supplying MiG?29 fighters and other traditional systems, Russia not only maintains ongoing influence over Serbia's operational capacities but also provides a platform for political and military projection in the region. This Russian influence can manifest in several ways: enhancing Serbia's standoff capabilities for pressure against neighbors; providing strategic support in case of regional tensions; and offering Serbia an alternative to Western alignment. This blend of Eastern technology with Western acquisitions (e.g., Rafale jets) creates a complex equilibrium, yet also poses a dilemma for NATO and neighboring states: Serbia possesses advanced capabilities that challenge alliance operational forecasts, making the region more sensitive to potential crises.

From a regional perspective, Serbia's modernization increases security tensions and threat perception among neighbors, particularly in Kosovo, Bosnia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia. Its long-range strike capacity, reconnaissance, and coercive power could be employed not only for defense but also for political or territorial influence, raising questions about Belgrade's real strategic intentions. Meanwhile, the combination of Western and Russian technologies increases the complexity of crisis management and destabilizes neighbors' security calculations, forcing additional defense investments or new strategic assessments.

Critically, Russian involvement can be seen as an informal mechanism to balance power against the West, giving Serbia a platform to challenge NATO and EU influence in the Balkans. In this context, modernization is not simply a matter of sovereign defense but a geopolitical instrument with the potential to reshape regional power balances in favor of Serbia and Russian influence.

In terms of regional security and stability, this modernization presents a dual challenge: it strengthens Serbia's sovereignty and technological capabilities but also increases the likelihood of escalated tensions or conflicts due to threat perceptions among neighbors and international actors. Furthermore, the mix of Eastern and Western technologies creates coordination challenges in regional dialogue, exercise transparency, and arms control, highlighting the need for new confidence-building and preventive negotiation mechanisms.

In conclusion, Serbia's military modernization is a clear example of how a regional state can leverage technology, budget, and international influence to enhance its military and political capacity. However, Serbia's strategic progress comes at a cost: rising regional tensions, the potential for an arms race, and an increased need for international dialogue to maintain stability. Russia's role in this context cannot be ignored, as it acts both as a catalyst for operational capabilities and as an element of geopolitical pressure on neighbors and Western institutions.

Footnotes

1. Chinese imports for modern equipment – SIPRI 2025

2. Rafale contract – French Ministry of Defense, 2023

3. Russian MiG?29 imports – SIPRI 2025

4. Domestic production (tanks and ammunition) – Serbian Ministry of Defense 2022

5. Air-ground integration and standoff capability – Balkan Strategic Analysis, 2024

6. Defense budget – SIPRI 2025

7. Serbia's military neutrality – Serbian Government 2023

8. Partnership for Peace – NATO, 2024

9. FK?3 – CASIC technical sources, 2022

10. FK?3/HQ?17AE defensive capabilities – Jane's Defence 2023

11. FK?3 operational role – Tactical analysis, 2024

12. Comparison with neighbors – Regional analysis, 2024

13. HQ?17AE – Technical sources, 2023

14. HQ?17AE reaction time – Technical analysis, 2023

15. Operational role – Tactical analysis, 2024

16. CM?400AKG – CASIC, 2022

17. CM?400AKG range – Jane's, 2023

18. Speed – Technical analysis, 2023

19. Warhead – Mission analysis, 2024

20. Operational profile – Strategic analysis, 2024

21. Comparison with neighbors – Regional analysis, 2024

22. CH?92A/CH?95 – CASIC sources, 2022–2023

23. CH?95 – Technical analysis, 2024

24. First European operator – Ministry of Defense, 2023

25. Tactical-operational advantage – Operational analysis, 2024

26. MiG?29 – Jane's, 2023

27. Dassault Rafale – Contract sources, 2023

28. Avionics capabilities – Jane's, 2023

29. Neighbor comparison – Regional analysis, 2024

30. Chinese imports 2020–2025 – SIPRI, 2025

31. Russian imports 2020–2025 – SIPRI, 2025

32. French imports – SIPRI, 2025

33. Import percentages – SIPRI, 2025

34. Arms race risk – Strategic analysis, 2024

35. Neighbor reactions – Diplomatic analysis, 2024

36. Regional stability – Regional analysis, 2024

37. NATO impact – Strategic analysis, 2024

38. Effect on neighbors – Regional analysis, 2024

39. Balance of power – Tactical-strategic analysis, 2024

40. Conflict prevention – Diplomatic analysis, 2024

41. Strategic conclusion – Combined analysis, 2024

42. Operational doctrine – Serbian Ministry of Defense, 2023

43. Policy recommendations – Strategic analysis, 2024

44. Analysis conclusion – Combined analysis, 2024

The Land of Leka; 21.03.2026